Speaker: Professor Simon Price - Bank of England
Series: Economics Department Seminar Series
Economics Department Seminar
Density forecast combinations are becoming increasingly popular as a means of improving forecast 'accuracy', as measured by a scoring rule. In this paper we generalise this literature by letting the combination weights follow more general schemes.
Sieve estimation is used to optimise the score of the generalised density combination where the combination weights depend on the variable one is trying to forecast. Specific attention is paid to the use of piecewise linear weight functions that let the weights vary by region of the density. We analyse these schemes theoretically, in Monte Carlo experiments and in an empirical study. Our results show that the generalised combinations outperform their linear counterparts.
Speakers details can be found here.
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When & where
5.00pm - 6.20pmWednesday 15th May 2013