This is a recurring event: View all events in the series “Computational Political Psychology Network Autumn Meetings ”
This is part of the Autumn Meetings organized by the Computational Political Psychology Network.
Noam Gidron, Oren Danieli, Ro'ee Levy; Hebrew University and Tel Aviv University
Over the past three decades, the support of populist radical right parties has dramatically increased.
Broadly, proposed explanations for this development can be classified into three categories: changes in voter characteristics, changes in party positions, and changes in the weights voters place on certain issues.
To examine the driving power of these sets of explanations, we merge Integrated Values Survey data with Comparative Manifesto Project data on party positions. We develop a probabilistic voting model to estimate voting weights based on the interaction between voter characteristics and party positions.
Using a decomposition method, we find no evidence that shifts in voters' opinions or demographic pushed voters to the populist right. Changes in partisan supply--mainly the entrance of populist radical right parties--explain a small share of these parties' growing support.
The major driver behind their success lies in the rising importance voters attach to the issues on which populist radical right parties campaign. Our findings contribute to theoretical debates about sources of support for radical parties. Methodologically, they demonstrate the benefits of applying decomposition methods to political economic questions.
Attendance at City events is subject to our terms and conditions.