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  4. This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

Oct

20

Wednesday

This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

12.00am

Lectures

Public

Registration and refreshments 18.30, Lecture 19.00, Networking and refreshments 20.00

Series: The 23rd Sir Robert Birley Memorial Lecture

This Time is Different:  Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

The lecture will discuss how quantitative analysis of financial history can provide valuable benchmarks for assessing crisis vulnerability and for projecting the course of a financial crisis as it unfolds.  One key lesson from history is that public debt typically explodes in the aftermath of financial crisis.  Thus it should be little surprise that waves of international banking crises are often followed by waves of sovereign debt crises. The lecture will also discuss some features of the novel data base on which the analysis is based, together with some background on the challenges of constructing it.  The lecture will draw heavily on the author’s joint work with Carmen Reinhart, including both their recent book (This Time is Different) as well as some related academic papers.

Kenneth Rogoff is Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy and Professor of Economics at Harvard University. From 2001-2003, Rogoff served as Chief Economist and Director of Research at the International Monetary Fund.  He is also a former Director of the Center for International Development at Harvard.  Rogoff’s treatise Foundations of International Macroeconomics (joint with Maurice Obstfeld) is the standard graduate text in the field worldwide, and his monthly syndicated column on global economic issues is published regularly in over 50 countries.  He is on the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Central Bank of Sweden.  His recent book with Carmen Reinhart,  This Time is Different:  Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton University Press), builds on a massive new data set covering 66 countries and 800 years.

Sir Robert BirleySir Robert Birley, the first head of Social Sciences at City University London, had a passion for education and its practical significance for society and the individual.

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12.00am - 12.00amWednesday 20th October 2010

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