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Professor Peter Ayton

Visiting Lecturer

School of Arts and Social Sciences Department of Psychology

Contact details

Address

Professor Peter Ayton D330, Rhind Building
City, University of London
Northampton Square
London EC1V 0HB
United Kingdom

About

Overview

Professor Ayton studies behavioural decision theory. Specifically, his research investigates how people make judgments and decisions under conditions of risk, uncertainty and ambiguity. He uses a variety of empirical methods including laboratory experiments, surveys and field studies.

He is a member of the European Association for Decision Making and the Society for Judgment & Decision Making and currently serves on the editorial boards of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making; Current Psychology Letters: Behaviour, Brain & Cognition and Theory and Psychology.

Professor Ayton joined the Psychology Department at City in 1992 following research and lecturing posts at the City of London Polytechnic and a post at the BBC as manager of special projects in their Broadcasting Research Department.

He has been a visiting scholar at Princeton University, Carnegie-Mellon University, the University of California Los Angeles, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, the University of Mannheim, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, Bilkent University, and INSEAD in both Fontainebleau and Singapore.

Teaching

- PS1003 Cognitive Approaches to Mind & Behaviour
- PS2003 Cognitive Psychology 1
- PS2001 Research Methods in Psychology
- PS3003 Judgment & Decision Making
- PS3001 Psychology Project
- PSM502 Design of Environments and Work and Human-Machine Interaction

Research

Research interests

- Behavioural decision theory
- Behavioural decision-making
- Risk
- Uncertainty
- Affect
- Well-being
- Psychology

Publications

Publications by category

Books (4)

  1. Andersson, P., Ayton, P. and Schmidt, C. (2008). Myths and Facts about Football. Cambridge Scholars Publishing. ISBN 978-1-4438-0114-0.
  2. Wright, G., Transport, G.B.D.F., Ayton, P., Rowe, G. and van Der Pligt, J. (2006). Post-court road safety interventions for convicted traffic offenders. ISBN 978-1-904763-72-7.
  3. Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1994). Subjective probability. John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-0-471-94443-0.
  4. Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1987). Judgmental forecasting. John Wiley & Sons Inc.

Chapters (28)

  1. Ayton, P. (2011). The Bomb Party Probability Illusion. In Brun, W., Keren, G., Kirkebøen, G. and Montgomery, H. (Eds.), Perspectives on Thinking, Judging, and Decision Making (pp. 76–87). Oslo: Universitetsforlaget.. ISBN 978-82-15-01878-2.
  2. Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A.A., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2010). Automation Biases in CAD-assisted Decision Making. In Samei, E. and Krupinski, E. (Eds.), The Handbook of Medical Image Perception and Techniques Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 978-0-521-51392-0.
  3. Aldrovandi, S., Poirier, M., Heussen, D. and Ayton, P. (2009). Memory strategies mediate the relationships between memory and judgment. In Taatgen, N.A. and van Rijn, H. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 2457–2462). Cognitive Science Society.
  4. Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2009). Computer Aided Detection: Risks and benefits for radiologists' decisions. In Samei, E. and Krupinski, E. (Eds.), The Handbook of Medical Image Perception and Techniques (pp. 320–332). Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 978-0-521-51392-0.
  5. Ayton, P. and Braennberg, A. (2008). Fallacies in Footballers. In Andersson, P., Ayton, P. and Schmidt, C. (Eds.), Myths and Facts about Football Cambridge Scholars Publishing. ISBN 978-1-84718-622-5.
  6. Harries, C. and Ayton, P. (2007). Medical Decision Making. In Ayers, S., Baum, A. and McManus, C. (Eds.), Cambridge handbook of psychology, health and medicine Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 978-0-521-60510-6.
  7. Kysar, D.A., Ayton, P., FRANK, R., FREY, B., GIGERENZER, G., GLIMCHER, P. … MAGEN, S. (2006). Are heuristics a problem or a solution? In Gigerenzer, G. and Engel, C. (Eds.), Heuristics and the law The MIT Press. ISBN 978-0-262-07275-5.
  8. Ayton, P. (2005). Judgment and Decision-Making. In Braisby, N. and Gellatly, A. (Eds.), Cognitive psychology Oxford University Press, USA. ISBN 978-0-19-927376-8.
  9. Ayton, P. (2005). Subjective Probability And Human Judgment. Encyclopedia of Statistics in Behavioral Science ISBN 978-0-470-86080-9.
  10. Hardman, D. and Ayton, P. (2004). Argumentation and decisions. In Smith, K., Shanteau, J. and Johnson, P.E. (Eds.), Psychological investigations of competence in decision making Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 978-0-521-58306-0.
  11. Ayton, P. (2001). Characterizing Uncertainty and "Levels of Confidence" in Climate Assessment. In McCarthy, J.J. (Ed.), Climate change 2001 Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 978-0-521-01500-4.
  12. Ayton, P. (1998). Why does psychology need methodology? In Nunn, J. (Ed.), Laboratory Psychology: A student’s guide London: London: Erlbaum.
  13. Ayton, P. (1998). Why does psychology need methodology? In Nunn, J. (Ed.), Laboratory Psychology: A student’s guide. London: Erlbaum.
  14. Ayton, P. (1998). Experimental versus correlational approaches. In Nunn, J. (Ed.), Laboratory Psychology: A student’s guide. London: Erlbaum.
  15. Ayton, P. (1998). How bad is human judgment? In Wright, G. and Goodwin, P. (Eds.), Forecasting with judgment Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-97014-9.
  16. Ayton, P. and Hardman, D. (1997). The StAR Risk Adviser: Psychological Arguments for Qualitative Risk Assessment. In Redmill, F. (Ed.), Safety Critical Systems Springer-Verlag..
  17. Ayton, P., Wright, G. and Rowe, G. (1997). Medical Decision Making. In Baum, A. (Ed.), Cambridge handbook of psychology, health, and medicine Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 978-0-521-43686-1.
  18. Rowe, G., Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1997). Judgment and Decision Making. In Baum, A. (Ed.), Cambridge handbook of psychology, health, and medicine Cambridge Univ Pr. ISBN 978-0-521-43686-1.
  19. Ayton, P. and Hardman, D. (1997). Psychological Arguments For Qualitative Approaches To Risk and Uncertainty. Social shaping of technology San Sebastian: University of Bilbao Press..
  20. Ayton, P. and Hardman, D. (1996). Understanding and Communicating Risk: A Psychological Overview. In Redmill, F. (Ed.), Safety Critical Systems Springer-Verlag.
  21. Fox, J., Hardman, D., Krause, P., Ayton, P. and Judson, P. (1995). Risk assessment and engineering: a cognitive engineering approach. In Macintosh, A. and Cooper, C. (Eds.), roceedings of Expert Systems 1995 (pp. 377–390). Cambridge University Press.
  22. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1994). Subjective probability: What should we believe? In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (Eds.), Subjective probability (pp. 163–183). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 978-0-471-94443-0.
  23. Ayton, P. (1992). On the competence and incompetence of experts. In Wright, G. and Bolger, F. (Eds.), Expertise and decision support Springer. ISBN 978-0-306-43862-2.
  24. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1989). The use of probability axioms for evaluating and improving forecasts. In Jackson, M.C., Keys, P., Cropper, S.A. and Societies, I.F.O.O.R. (Eds.), Operational research and the social sciences Plenum Publishing Corporation.
  25. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1989). Gateways for judgment in statistical forecasting models. In Jackson, M.C., Keys, P., Cropper, S.A. and Societies, I.F.O.O.R. (Eds.), Operational research and the social sciences Plenum Publishing Corporation.
  26. Ayton, P. (1987). The psychology of forecasting. In Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (Eds.), Judgmental forecasting John Wiley & Sons Inc.
  27. Ayton, P. Judgment and Decision-Making. In Braisby, N. and Gellatly, A. (Eds.), Cognitive Psychology Oxford University Press, USA.
  28. Ayton, P. and Helleringer, G. Bias, self-insight, vested interests and self-deception in judgment and decision-making: challenges set by the requirement of arbitrator impartiality. In Cole, A. (Ed.), The Roles of Psychology in International Arbitration. Kluwer.

Conference papers and proceedings (14)

  1. Radu, X., Jofre-Bonet, M., Ayton, P. and Cubi-Molla, P. (2017). Patients Acknowledge Adaptation: The Case Of Amputees.
  2. Ayton, P., Alberdi, E., Strigini, L. and Wright, D. (2013). Preference for predictable or uncertain probabilities and the risk of failure. SPUDM 2013, 24th Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision-Making Conference 18-22 August, Barcelona.
  3. Ayton, P., Alberdi, E., Strigini, L. and Wright, D. (2012). Better the devil you don't know. Society for Judgment & Decision Making (SJDM) Conference 16-19 November, Minneapolis.
  4. Aldrovandi, S., Poirier, M., Kusev, P., Heussen, D. and Ayton, P. (2011). Now I like it, now I don't: Delay effects and retrospective judgment. In L. Carlson, C. Hölscher, & T. Shipley (Eds.), Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society.
  5. Alberdi, E., Strigini, L., Povyakalo, A.A. and Ayton, P. (2009). Why Are People's Decisions Sometimes Worse with Computer Support? SAFECOMP 2009, 28th International Conference on Computer Safety, Reliability, and Security.
  6. Strigini, L., Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A. and Ayton, P. (2005). Automation bias in medical decision making: A study of unreliable computer advice in breast cancer screening. 27th Annual Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM05) October, San Francisco.
  7. Ayton, P. (2005). Extending the discipline: how software can help or hinder human decision making (and vice-versa).
  8. Alberdi, E., Ayton, P., Povyakalo, A.A. and Strigini, L. (2005). Automation bias and system design: A case study in a medical application.
  9. Ayton, P. (2005). How software can help or hinder human decision making (and vice-versa).
  10. Strigini, L., Povyakalo, A., Alberdi, E. and Ayton, P. (2003). Decision support or automation bias? A study of computer aided decision making in breast screening. Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making (SPUDM 2003).
  11. Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2003). Does incorrect computer prompting affect human decision making? A case study in mammography.
  12. Ayton, P.J. (1996). Judgement under uncertainty and the cognitive illusion illusion.
  13. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1989). Psychological aspects of forecasting with statistical methods. . In Proceedings of the 8th International Multiple Criteria Decision Making Conference Berlin: Springer Verlag.
  14. Strigini, L., Povyakalo, A., Alberdi, E. and Ayton, P. Evaluating 'Human + Advisory computer' systems: A case study. HCI2004,18th British HCI Group Annual Conference.

Internet publication

  1. Tumber, H. and Ayton, P. (2014). Media bias and the Scottish referendum: BBC gets the blame as usual.

Journal articles (109)

  1. Ayton, P., Weiss-Cohen, L. and Barson, M. (2022). Magical contagion and commemorative plaques: Effects of celebrity occupancy on property values. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 79, pp. 101723–101723. doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101723.
  2. Weiss-Cohen, L., Ayton, P., Clacher, I. and Thoma, V. (2022). Pension scheme trustees as surrogate decision makers. Finance Research Letters, 44, pp. 102043–102043. doi:10.1016/j.frl.2021.102043.
  3. Silas, J., Jones, A., Weiss-Cohen, L. and Ayton, P. (2021). The seductive allure of technical language and its effect on covid-19 vaccine beliefs and intentions. Vaccine, 39(52), pp. 7590–7597. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.027.
  4. Sokolowska, J., Ayton, P. and Brandstätter, E. (2021). Editorial: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): Psychological Reactions to the Pandemic. Frontiers in Psychology, 12. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.745941.
  5. Filkuková, P., Ayton, P., Rand, K. and Langguth, J. (2021). What Should I Trust? Individual Differences in Attitudes to Conflicting Information and Misinformation on COVID-19. Frontiers in Psychology, 12. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.588478.
  6. Weiss-Cohen, L., Newall, P.W.S. and Ayton, P. (2021). Persistence is futile: Chasing of past performance in repeated investment choices. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied. doi:10.1037/xap0000358.
  7. Thoma, V., Weiss-Cohen, L., Filkuková, P. and Ayton, P. (2021). Cognitive Predictors of Precautionary Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Frontiers in Psychology, 12. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.589800.
  8. Ayton, P. and Weiss-Cohen, L. (2021). Smoking versus vaping: how (not) to communicate their relative harms. Journal of Risk Research, 24(2), pp. 198–214. doi:10.1080/13669877.2020.1749117.
  9. Dhami, M.K., Weiss-Cohen, L. and Ayton, P. (2020). Are People Experiencing the ‘Pains of Imprisonment’ During the COVID-19 Lockdown? Frontiers in Psychology, 11. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2020.578430.
  10. Ayton, P., Bernile, G., Bucciol, A. and Zarri, L. (2020). The impact of life experiences on risk taking. Journal of Economic Psychology, 79, pp. 102274–102274. doi:10.1016/j.joep.2020.102274.
  11. Weiss-Cohen, L., Ayton, P. and Clacher, I. (2020). Extraneous menu-effects influence financial decisions made by pension trustees. Economics Letters, 187, pp. 108895–108895. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108895.
  12. Osman, M., Ayton, P., Bouder, F., Pidgeon, N. and Lofstedt, R. (2019). Evidence based uncertainty: what is needed now? Journal of Risk Research. doi:10.1080/13669877.2019.1646316.
  13. Weiss-Cohen, L., Ayton, P., Clacher, I. and Thoma, V. (2019). Behavioral biases in pension fund trustees' decision-making. Review of Behavioral Finance, 11(2), pp. 128–143. doi:10.1108/RBF-05-2018-0049.
  14. Ayton, P., Murray, S. and Hampton, J.A. (2019). Terrorism, dread risk and bicycle accidents. Judgment and Decision Making, 14(3), pp. 280–287.
  15. Kusev, P., Purser, H., Heilman, R., Cooke, A.J., van Schaik, P., Baranova, V. … Ayton, P. (2017). Understanding risky behaviour: the influence of cognitive, emotional and hormonal factors on decision- making under risk. Frontiers in Psychology. doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00102.
  16. Aldrovandi, S., Poirier, M., Kusev, P. and Ayton, P. (2015). Retrospective Evaluations of Sequences. Experimental Psychology, 62(5), pp. 320–334. doi:10.1027/1618-3169/a000301.
  17. Gherzi, S., Egan, D., Stewart, N., Haisley, E. and Ayton, P. (2014). The meerkat effect: Personality and market returns affect investors’ portfolio monitoring behaviour. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 107, pp. 512–526. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2014.07.013.
  18. Gherzi, S., Egan, D., Stewart, N., Haisley, E. and Ayton, P. (2014). The meerkat effect: Personality and market returns affect investors' portfolio monitoring behaviour. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 107(PB), pp. 512–526. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2014.07.013.
  19. Ayton, P. (2013). How judgment and decision research can influence sport (and vice versa). JOURNAL OF SPORT & EXERCISE PSYCHOLOGY, 35.
  20. Povyakalo, A.A., Alberdi, E., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2013). How to discriminate between computer-aided and computer-hindered decisions: a case study in mammography. Medical Decision Making, 33, pp. 98–107.
  21. Kusev, P., Ayton, P., van Schaik, P., Tsaneva-Atanasova, K., Stewart, N. and Chater, N. (2011). Judgments relative to patterns: how temporal sequence patterns affect judgments and memory. J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform, 37(6), pp. 1874–1886. doi:10.1037/a0025589.
  22. Ayton, P., Önkal, D. and McReynolds, L. (2011). Effects of ignorance and information on judgments and decisions. Judgment and Decision Making, 6(5), pp. 381–391.
  23. Broomhead, R.H., Ayton, P. and Marks, R.J. (2010). Confirmation Of The Ability To Ventilate By Facemask Prior To Administration Of Neuromuscular Blocker: A Non-Instrumental Piece Of Information? British Journal of Anaesthesia, 104, pp. 313–317.
  24. Walsh, E. and Ayton, P. (2009). My imagination versus your feelings: can personal affective forecasts be improved by knowing other peoples' emotions? J Exp Psychol Appl, 15(4), pp. 351–360. doi:10.1037/a0017984.
  25. Kusev, P., van Schaik, P., Ayton, P., Dent, J. and Chater, N. (2009). Exaggerated risk: prospect theory and probability weighting in risky choice. J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn, 35(6), pp. 1487–1505. doi:10.1037/a0017039.
  26. Falk, R., Falk, R. and Ayton, P. (2009). Subjective patterns of randomness and choice: some consequences of collective responses. J Exp Psychol Hum Percept Perform, 35(1), pp. 203–224. doi:10.1037/0096-1523.35.1.203.
  27. Walsh, E. and Ayton, P. (2009). What would it be like for me and for you? Judged impact of chronic health conditions on happiness. Med Decis Making, 29(1), pp. 15–22. doi:10.1177/0272989X08326147.
  28. Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A.A., Strigini, L., Ayton, P. and Given-Wilson, R. (2008). CAD in mammography: Lesion-level versus case-level analysis of the effects of prompts on human decisions. International Journal of Computer Assisted Radiology and Surgery, 3(1-2), pp. 115–122. doi:10.1007/s11548-008-0213-x.
  29. Dhami, M.K., Ayton, P. and Loewenstein, G. (2007). Adaptation to imprisonment: Indigenous or imported? Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34(8), pp. 1085–1100. doi:10.1177/0093854807302002.
  30. Ayton, P., Pott, A. and Elwakili, N. (2007). Affective forecasting: Why can't people predict their emotions? Thinking and Reasoning, 13(1), pp. 62–80. doi:10.1080/13546780600872726.
  31. Dhami, M.K., Mandel, D.R., Loewenstein, G. and Ayton, P. (2006). Prisoners' positive illusions of their post-release success. Law Hum Behav, 30(6), pp. 631–647. doi:10.1007/s10979-006-9040-1.
  32. Wright, C. and Ayton, P. (2005). Focusing on what might happen and how it could feel: Can the anticipation of regret change students' computing-related choices? International Journal of Human Computer Studies, 62(6), pp. 759–783. doi:10.1016/j.ijhcs.2005.03.001.
  33. Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A.A., Strigini, L., Ayton, P., Hartswood, M., Procter, R. … Slack, R. (2005). Use of computer-aided detection (CAD) tools in screening mammography: a multidisciplinary investigation. Br J Radiol, 78 Spec No 1. doi:10.1259/bjr/37646417.
  34. Ayton, P. and Fischer, I. (2004). The hot hand fallacy and the gambler's fallacy: two faces of subjective randomness? Mem Cognit, 32(8), pp. 1369–1378. doi:10.3758/bf03206327.
  35. Alberdi, E., Povykalo, A., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2004). Effects of incorrect computer-aided detection (CAD) output on human decision-making in mammography. Acad Radiol, 11(8), pp. 909–918. doi:10.1016/j.acra.2004.05.012.
  36. Povyakalo, A.A., Alberdi, E., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2004). Evaluating ``Human + Advisory computer'' system: A case study. Proceedings of the 18th British HCI Group Annual Conference, 2, pp. 93–96.
  37. Alberdi, E., Povyakalo, A.A., Strigini, L. and Ayton, P. (2004). Effects of incorrect CAD output on human decision making in mammography. Academic Radiology, 11(8), pp. 909–918.
  38. Kerstholt, J. and Ayton, P. (2001). Should NDM change our understanding of decision making? JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, 14(5), pp. 370–371. doi:10.1002/bdm.390.
  39. Ayton, P. (2001). Regrets, I've had a few ... NEW SCIENTIST, 169(2284), pp. 45–45.
  40. Dhami, M.K. and Ayton, P. (2001). Bailing and jailing the fast and frugal way. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 14(2), pp. 141–168. doi:10.1002/bdm.371.
  41. Ayton, P. and Tumber, H. (2001). The rise and fall of perceived bias at the BBC. Intermedia, 29(4), pp. 12–15.
  42. Ayton, P. (2000). First person - You can't argue with that. NEW SCIENTIST, 168(2266), pp. 51–51.
  43. Ayton, P. (2000). Do the birds and bees need cognitive reform? BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES, 23(5), p. 666. doi:10.1017/S0140525X00233438.
  44. Ayton, P. (2000). If you're happy and you know it . . . NEW SCI, 167(2254), pp. 45–45.
  45. Ayton, P. (2000). Lies I tell myself. NEW SCIENTIST, 167(2247), pp. 45–45.
  46. Ayton, P. (2000). Trouble ahead. NEW SCIENTIST, 166(2236), pp. 43–43.
  47. Ayton, P. and Arkes, H.R. (2000). Think like a dog. Psychology Today, 33(1), pp. 10–11.
  48. Ayton, P. (1999). Clear cut. NEW SCIENTIST, 164(2216), pp. 47–47.
  49. Ayton, P., Ferrell, W.R. and Stewart, T.R. (1999). Commentaries on "The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis" by Rowe and Wright. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 15(4), pp. 377–381. doi:10.1016/S0169-2070(99)00013-8.
  50. Ayton, P., Ranyard, R. and Timmermans, D. (1999). Selected proceedings of the 16th Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making - Introduction. JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL DECISION MAKING, 12(2), pp. 91–92. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199906)12:23.0.CO;2-K.
  51. Arkes, H.R. and Ayton, P. (1999). The sunk cost and concorde effects: Are humans less rational than lower animals? Psychological Bulletin, 125(5), pp. 591–600. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.125.5.591.
  52. Ayton, P. and Arkes, H. (1998). Call it quits. New Scientist, (2135), pp. 40–43.
  53. Ayton, P. (1998). Fallacy football. NEW SCIENTIST, 159(2152), pp. 52–52.
  54. Linney, Y.M., Peters, E.R. and Ayton, P. (1998). Reasoning biases in delusion-prone individuals. Br J Clin Psychol, 37(3), pp. 285–302. doi:10.1111/j.2044-8260.1998.tb01386.x.
  55. Ayton, P. (1997). How to be incoherent and seductive: Bookmakers' odds and support theory. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 72(1), pp. 99–115. doi:10.1006/obhd.1997.2732.
  56. AYTON, P. and McCLELLAND, A.G.R. (1997). How Real is Overconfidence? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10(3), pp. 279–285. doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199709)10:33.0.co;2-n.
  57. Harvey, N., Koehler, D.J. and Ayton, P. (1997). Judgments of decision effectiveness: Actor-observer differences in overconfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 70(3), pp. 267–282. doi:10.1006/obhd.1997.2710.
  58. Ayton, P. and Mcclelland, A.G.R. (1997). How real is overconfidence? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10(3), pp. 279–285. doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199709)10:33.0.co;2-n.
  59. Ayton, P. and Hardman, D. (1997). Rationality in reasoning: The problem of deductive competence - Commentary. CAHIERS DE PSYCHOLOGIE COGNITIVE-CURRENT PSYCHOLOGY OF COGNITION, 16(1-2), pp. 39–51.
  60. Hardman, D.K. and Ayton, P. (1997). Arguments for qualitative risk assessment: The StAR risk adviser. Expert Systems, 14(1), pp. 24–36. doi:10.1111/1468-0394.00038.
  61. Ayton, P. and Hardman, D. (1997). Are two rationalities better than one? Current Psycholoy of Cognition, 16, pp. 39–51.
  62. Harvey, N., Koehler, D. and Ayton, P. (1997). Actor-observer differences in judgmental probability forecasting of control response efficacy. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 70, pp. 267–282.
  63. BeythMarom, R., Ayton, P., Beattie, J. and Koele, P. (1996). Selected Proceedings of the 15th Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making Jerusalem, Israel, August 1995 - Preface. ACTA PSYCHOLOGICA, 93(1-3). doi:10.1016/S0001-6918(96)90019-0.
  64. BeythMarom, R., Ayton, P., Beattie, J. and Koele, P. (1996). Selected Proceedings of the 15th Research Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making Jerusalem, Israel, August 1995 - Introduction and overview. ACTA PSYCHOLOGICA, 93(1-3), pp. 1–2. doi:10.1016/S0001-6918(96)90021-9.
  65. Ayton, P. (1996). Humour - An ambiguous figure in the real world. PERCEPTION, 25(5), pp. 619–619. doi:10.1068/p250619.
  66. Ayton, P. (1996). An ambiguous figure in the real world. Perception, 25, p. 619.
  67. Ayton, P. (1995). Number needed to treat. Risk measures expressed as frequencies may have a more rational response. BMJ, 310(6989), p. 1269. doi:10.1136/bmj.310.6989.1269a.
  68. North, D. (1995). Number needed to treat. BMJ, 310(6989), p. 1269. doi:10.1136/bmj.310.6989.1269.
  69. AYTON, P. and PASCOE, E. (1995). BIAS IN HUMAN JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY. KNOWLEDGE ENGINEERING REVIEW, 10(1), pp. 21–41. doi:10.1017/S0269888900007244.
  70. Ayton, P. (1995). Risk measures expressed as frequencies may have a more rational response. British Medical Journal, 310.
  71. Ayton, P. (1994). Decisions, Decisions. The Times Higher Educational Supplement.
  72. AYTON, P. and HARVEY, N. (1994). INAPPROPRIATE JUDGMENTS - SLIPS MISTAKES OR VIOLATIONS. BEHAVIORAL AND BRAIN SCIENCES, 17(1), pp. 12–12. doi:10.1017/S0140525X00033045.
  73. Ayton, P. (1993). Base-rate neglect: An inside view of judgment? Psycoloquy, 4(63).
  74. Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1992). Judgmental probability forecasting in the immediate and medium term. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 51(3), pp. 344–363. doi:10.1016/0749-5978(92)90017-2.
  75. Ayton, P., Hunt, A.J. and Wright, G. (1991). Commentaries on ‘psychological conceptions of randomness’. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 4(3), pp. 215–218. doi:10.1002/bdm.3960040307.
  76. Ayton, P., Hunt, A. and Wright, G. (1991). Randomness and reality. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 4, pp. 222–226.
  77. HARVEY, N. and AYTON, P. (1990). ACTOR-OBSERVER DIFFERENCES IN JUDGMENTAL PROBABILITY FORECASTING OF CONTROL RESPONSE EFFICACY. BULLETIN OF THE PSYCHONOMIC SOCIETY, 28(6), pp. 523–523.
  78. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1990). Uncertain memories: Evaluating the competence of probabilistic cognition. Advances in Psychology, 68(C), pp. 465–476. doi:10.1016/S0166-4115(08)61337-0.
  79. Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1990). Biases in Probabilistic Judgment A Historical Perspective. Advances in Psychology, 68(C), pp. 425–441. doi:10.1016/S0166-4115(08)61335-7.
  80. Ayton, P., Hunt, A.J. and Wright, G. (1989). Psychological conceptions of randomness. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2(4), pp. 221–238. doi:10.1002/bdm.3960020403.
  81. Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1989). Judgemental probability forecasts for personal and impersonal events. International Journal of Forecasting, 5(1), pp. 117–125. doi:10.1016/0169-2070(89)90069-1.
  82. Ayton, P., Hunt, A.J. and Wright, G. (1989). Psychological conceptions of randomness. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 2, pp. 221–238. doi:10.1002/bdm.3960020403.
  83. Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1988). Decision time, subjective probability, and task difficulty. Mem Cognit, 16(2), pp. 176–185. doi:10.3758/bf03213487.
  84. WRIGHT, G., SAUNDERS, C. and AYTON, P. (1988). THE CONSISTENCY, COHERENCE AND CALIBRATION OF HOLISTIC, DECOMPOSED AND RECOMPOSED JUDGEMENTAL PROBABILITY FORECASTS. JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 7(3), pp. 185–199. doi:10.1002/for.3980070304.
  85. Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1988). Immediate and short-term judgemental forecasting: Personologism, situationism or interactionism? Personality and Individual Differences, 9(1), pp. 109–120. doi:10.1016/0191-8869(88)90036-0.
  86. Ayton, P. (1988). PERCEPTIONS OF BROADCAST WEATHER FORECASTS. Weather, 43(5), pp. 193–197. doi:10.1002/j.1477-8696.1988.tb03909.x.
  87. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1987). Tests for randomness? Teaching Mathematics and its Applications, 6(2), pp. 83–87. doi:10.1093/teamat/6.2.83.
  88. Ayton, P. and Mcclelland, A. (1987). The despicable doctor fischer's (bayesian) bomb party. Teaching Mathematics and its Applications, 6(4), pp. 179–183. doi:10.1093/teamat/6.4.179.
  89. WRIGHT, G. and AYTON, P. (1987). TASK INFLUENCES ON JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING. SCANDINAVIAN JOURNAL OF PSYCHOLOGY, 28(2), pp. 115–127. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9450.1987.tb00746.x.
  90. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1987). Assessing and improving judgemental probability forecasts. Omega, 15(3), pp. 191–196. doi:10.1016/0305-0483(87)90069-7.
  91. Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1987). Eliciting and modelling expert knowledge. Decision Support Systems, 3(1), pp. 13–26. doi:10.1016/0167-9236(87)90032-7.
  92. Ayton, P., Wright, G. and Fowler, C. (1987). The psychological dependence of research format and type of statistical analysis. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, 18, pp. 119–125.
  93. Wright, G., Ayton, P. and Fowler, C. (1987). The phychological dependence of research format and type of statistical analysis. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, 18(1), pp. 119–125. doi:10.1080/0020739870180115.
  94. WRIGHT, G. and AYTON, P. (1986). SUBJECTIVE CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS - A RESPONSE TO FISCHHOFF AND MACGREGOR. JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 5(2), pp. 117–123. doi:10.1002/for.3980050205.
  95. Wright, G. and Ayton, P. (1986). The psychology of forecasting. Futures, 18(3), pp. 420–439. doi:10.1016/0016-3287(86)90023-6.
  96. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1986). Persons, situations, interactions and error: consistency, variability and confusion. Personality and Individual Differences, 7(2), pp. 233–235. doi:10.1016/0191-8869(86)90061-9.
  97. WRIGHT, G., AYTON, P. and WHALLEY, P. (1985). FORECAST - A GENERAL-PURPOSE COMPUTER AID TO JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING. BEHAVIOR RESEARCH METHODS INSTRUMENTS & COMPUTERS, 17(4), pp. 515–517. doi:10.3758/BF03214462.
  98. AYTON, P. and WRIGHT, G. (1985). THE EVIDENCE FOR INTERACTIONISM IN PSYCHOLOGY - A REPLY. PERSONALITY AND INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCES, 6(4), pp. 509–512. doi:10.1016/0191-8869(85)90146-1.
  99. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1985). The evidence for interactionism in psychology: a reply to Furnham and Jaspars. Personality and Individual Differences, 6(4), pp. 509–512. doi:10.1016/0191-8869(85)90146-1.
  100. Wright, G., Ayton, P. and Whalley, P. (1985). A general purpose computer aid to judgemental forecasting: Rationale and procedures. Decision Support Systems, 1(4), pp. 333–340. doi:10.1016/0167-9236(85)90173-3.
  101. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1985). Judging the likelihood of future events. Current Research, 3, p. 148.
  102. Ayton, P. and Wright, G. (1985). Thinking with probabilities. Teaching Statistics, 7, pp. 37–40.
  103. Ayton, P. (1983). The unemployed in a local library. Journal of the Society of Publishers pp. 7–10.
  104. Le Voi, M.E., Ayton, P.J., Jonckheere, A.R., McClelland, A.G.R. and Rawles, R.E. (1983). Unidimensional memory traces: on the analysis of multiple cued recall. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, 22(5), pp. 560–576. doi:10.1016/S0022-5371(83)90346-8.
  105. Ayton, P. (1982). The processing of metaphor. Working Papers of the London Psycholinguistics Research Group, 4, pp. 5–10.
  106. Ayton, P., Jonckheere, A.R., Le Voi, M.E., McClelland, A.G.R. and Rawles, R.E. (1982). An experimental comparison of models of multiple cued recall. Bulletin of the British Psychological Society, 35, p. 211.
  107. Kusev, P., Ayton, P., van Schaik, P., Tsaneva-Atanasova, K., Stewart, N. and Chater, N. Judgments Relative To Patterns: How Temporal Sequence Patterns Affect Judgments And Memory. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance.
  108. Ayton, P., Hunt, A.J. and Wright, G. Randomness and reality. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 4, pp. 222–226.
  109. Silas, J., Jones, A., Weiss-Cohen, L. and Ayton, P. The seductive allure of technical language and the effect on covid-19 vaccine intentions. . doi:10.31234/osf.io/4kb6v.

Scholarly edition

  1. Ayton, P., Muradoglu, G. and Balasuriya, J. Optimism and Portfolio Choice.

Professional activities

Online articles (25)

  1. When chance is not such a fine thing. (1984). The Guardian Co-author: Wright, G.
    p.13
  2. Television commentary: Can anything useful be said? (1987). The Listener p29
  3. Fonder memories. (1999). New Scientist, Vol. 163 No. 2205 47
  4. Fonder memories. (1999). New Scientist, Vol. 163 No. 2205 47
  5. Ditherer’s Dilemma. (2000). New Scientist, Vol.165 no.2225 47
  6. Don’t talk to me now! (2001). New Scientist, Vol 170, (No. 2290) 49
  7. Why vote? (2001). New Scientist, Vol 170, (No. 2292) 49
  8. Commentators' forecasts of football results. (1987). The Guardian
  9. The pros and cons of perceptions of programme bias. (1990). The Guardian
  10. Psychology, punishment and criminal justice. (1991). The Guardian
  11. Memory and comprehension of television weather forecasts. (1992). The Times
  12. The rationality of the proposed state lottery. (1992). The Guardian
  13. Memory and comprehension of television weather forecasts. (1992). The Observer
  14. Broadcasting and Impartiality. (1995). The Guardian
  15. BBC and Bias. (1995). The Independent
  16. Attitudes to Smoking. (1995). The Guardian
  17. The National Lottery. (1995). The Guardian
  18. The National Lottery. (1995). The Independent
  19. Good causes and the lottery. (1995). the independent
  20. BBC and Bias. (1997). The Guardian
  21. God, Science and other fallacies. (1997). The guardian
  22. Risk, Frequency and Probability. (1997). The Independent on Sunday
  23. MMR risks. (2002). the guardian
  24. Dread Risk. (2005). the guardian
  25. A gift of life or a denial of choice? (2008). the guardian

Other (7)

  1. On memory for broadcast news. (with A.G.R. McClelland & R.E. Rawles) Radio Times May 10th, 1982..
  2. Minority Broadcasting. The Listener, June 28th, 1984..
  3. Minority Broadcasting. The Listener, July 12th, 1984..
  4. Minority Broadcasting. The Listener, July 12th, 1984..
  5. Minority Broadcasting. The Listener, August 2nd, 1984..
  6. John Searle's Reith Lectures. The Listener, December 6th, 1984..
  7. The effects of television violence. The Listener, December 19th, 1985..